Bank PO RC: PASSAGE 19

The great fear in Asia a short while ago was that the region would suffer through the wealth destruction already taking place in the U.S. as a result of the financial’ crisis. Stock markets tumbled as exports plunged and economic growth’ deteriorated. Lofty property prices in China and elsewhere looked set to bust as credit tightened and buyers evaporated. But with surprising speed, fear in Asia swung back to greed as the region shows signs of recovery and property and stock prices are soaring in many parts of Asia. Why should this sharp Asian turnaround be greeted with skepticism? Higher asset prices mean households feel wealthier and better able to end, which could further fuel the region’s nascent rebound. But just as easily, Asia could soon find itself saddled with overheated markets similar to the U.S. housing market. In short the world has not changed, it has just moved places.

The incipient bubble is being created by government policy. In response to the global credit crunch of 2008, policy makers in Asia slashed interest rates and flooded financial sectors with cash in frantic attempts to keep loans flowing and economies growing. These steps were logical for central bankers striving to reverse a deepening economic crisis. But there’s evidence that there is too much easy money around. It’s winding up in stocks and real estate, pushing prices up too far and too fast for the underlying economic fundamentals. Much of the concern is focused on China, where government stimulus efforts have been large and effective. Money in China has been especially easy to find. Aggregate new bank lending surged 201% in the first half of 2009 from the same period a year earlier, to nearly $1.1 trillion. Exuberance over a quick recovery –which was given a boost by China’s surprisingly strong 7.9% G DP growth in the second quarter -has buoyed investor sentiment not just for stocks but also for real estate.

Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan argued that bubbles could only be recognized in hrdsight. But investors -who have been well schooled in the dangers of bubbles over the past decade are increasingly wary that prices have risen too far, and that the slightest bit of negative economic news could knock markets for a loop. These fears are compounded by the possibility that Asia’s central bankers will begin taking steps to shut off the money. Rumours that Beijing was on the verge of tightening credit led to Shanghai stocks plunging 5%.Yetmany economists believe that, “there is close to a zero possibility that the Chinese government will do anything this year that constitutes tightening.” And without a major-shift in thinking, the easy-money conditions will stay in place. In a global economy that has produced more dramatic ups and downs than anyone thought possible over the past two years, Asia may be heading for another disheartening plunge.